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Maiyegun General

Sunday, 22 November 2015

Buharinomics: Stock market becomes worrisome as free fall continues By Kayode Ogunwale


As stock market continues to search for momentum triggers, trading activities on the Nigerian bourse dipped further this week.

The equities market close the week downward, a trend it has maintained for three consecutive weeks. At the end of the week trading, market indicators shows that the NSE All-Share Index and market capitalization depreciated by 2.46 per cent to close the week at 28,131.28 basis points and N9.670 trillion respectively.

Before now, many analysts believed that lull witnessing in the market was as a result of inability of government to form its cabinet and lack of clear policy direction by the government.

But now that minister have emerged relief weakening still persist in the market. This shows that there is no specific time bound for stock market to regain its confidence despite strong third quarter result released by some companies.
There is strong indication that there will still be more mixed sentiments in the market as the general market outlook remains unstable on investor’s low sentiment.

Transaction level by volume and value of trades recorded a significant depreciation of 59 per cent and 69 per cent respectively, relative to last week’s trading levels. In the week under review, a total of 793 million shares valued at N7.15 billion were exchanged in 12,437 number of deals compared to 1.957 billion shares valued at N23.343 billion exchanged in 14,604 deals recorded in the previous trading week.

Meanwhile, day by day trading on the local bourse shows that tier one banks push market lower on Monday as All Share Index records loss of 308.86 basis points. The market index slid down to 28,532.81 points as it shed 1.07 per cent on the back of loses in a majority of tier one banks. Declines in Stanbic, Zenith Bank, Guaranty Trust Bank, UBA and Ecobank Transnational Incorporation contributed to the market’s negative close. Market capitalization also lost N107 billion further affirming the dominance of negative sentiments on market activities. The volume and value traded decreased by 14.6 per cent and 73.7 per cent closing at 202.2 million units and N1.1 billion respectively. Market breadth settled low as 25 share prices depreciated as 10 appreciated.

Uneven momentum cuts across sectors just as the majority of tier one banks took a dive causing the financial sector to receive a daily return of negative 2.4 per cent, the consumer goods also return negative 0.9 per cent and industrial goods with negative 0.5 per cent sectors. Losses seen with these sectors were spurred on by declines in Nigerian Breweries, Access Bank and Dangote Cement. However FBN Holdings bucked the bearish trend within the banking sector to close at 8.4 per cent. Positive momentum in Seplat Petroleum Development Company buoyed the Oil and Gas sector to a daily return of 0.2 per cent.

On Tuesday, equities market continues on a bearish note on weak demand. The bourse shed 181.53 basis points to bring the negative year to date performance to 18.20 per cent The index and market capitalization closed lower at 28,351.28 and N9.749 trillion respectively. The market breadth closed in favor of the bears with 24 decliners against 14 advancers.

Volume of trades dipped by 35.70 per cent while value surged by 129.22 per cent. Transactions in the shares of FBN Holdings, Guaranty Trust Bank, Access Bank, Transnational Corporation of Nigeria and UBA topped the chart as most traded equities by volume.

The general Index and all sector indices maintain southward drift save for NSE Alternative Securities Market Index which remains flat.

Bearish sentiments extended dominance within the equities market on Wednesday, as the benchmark index lost another 131.84 basis points to close at 28,219.44 points. Market capitalization also closed lower, shedding N44 billion with as sell-offs prevailed across the board. Declines in counters such as Stanbic IBTC, Oando and Nigerian Breweries value traded decreased by 4.2 per cent to N2.5 billion. However, market breadth settled lower as 15 stocks appreciated while 25 depreciated. Despite attractive valuations, bearish sentiments continue to dominate equities which still reflect investor skepticism about the strength of domestic macro fundamentals, market analysts noted that third quarter GDP came in on Wednesday at a disappointing 2.8 per cent.

Sector-wide negative trend replicates, with Industrial goods still flat while losses filtered through the key sectors again as the daily returns for Oil and Gas, the Consumer Goods and the Financial Services sectors came in at negative 2.4 per cent, 0.7 per cent and 0.2 per cent respectively. Broad base losses were driven by counters such as Forte Oil -5.0 per cent, 7UP -0.54 per cent and Access Bank -0.21 per cent. The Industrial Goods sector recorded a flat daily return as Dangote Cement remained unchanged.

Despite a positive market breadth on Thursday 17 stocks appreciated while 24 depreciated, the general index lost marginally by 16.24 basis points closing at 28,203.20 points. Declines in large cap counters such as Oando lost 5 per cent and Guaranty Trust Bank lost 0.4 per cent weighed on the benchmark as market capitalization also inched lower, shedding N6 billion. Volume traded increased by 21.8 per cent to 175 million units while value traded decreased by 27.5 per cent to N1.1 billion.

Underperforming large cap stocks halt positive momentum. Losses filtered through the key sectors again as the daily returns for the Financial Services and the Oil and Gas sectors came in at -0.1 per cent and -0.6 per cent. Broad base gains were driven by counters such as UBA, Zenith Bank and Access Bank. The Consumer Goods closed flattish as losses in large cap stocks such as Nigerian Breweries and 7Up Bottling Company cancelled out the gains in PZ. The Industrial Goods sector also recorded a flat daily return as Dangote Cement and Lafarge Africa held steady.

However, NSE All Share Index and market capitalization on Friday depreciated by 71.92 basis points and N25 billion respectively, represented 0.26 per cent.
Portland Paints Plc led gainers chart with 9.92 per cent per share to close at N3.88 kobo, followed by E-Tranzact Plc with 5.31 per cent to close at N2.58 kobo, Livestock Feeds Plc with 5.00 per cent to close at N1.47 kobo, Cadbury Nigeria Plc with 4.71 per cent to close at N20.00 per share and Ashaka Cement Plc with 4.50 per cent to close at N23.00 kobo per share.

Others on the chart are, Academic Press Plc loss 3.51 per cent to close at N0.59 kobo, Cutix Plc with 3.45 per cent to close at N1.50 kobo, Learn Africa Plc with 3.08 per cent to close at N0.67 kobo, Eterna Plc with 2.21 per cent to close at N1.85 kobo, and Sterling Bank Plc with 2.05 per cent to close at N1.99 kobo.
On the other hand Dangote Flour Plc led on the losers table with 26.09 per cent loss to close at N1.87 kobo, Oando Plc lost 19.58 per cent to close at N6.20 kobo, Stanbic IBTC Holdings Plc with 11.78 per cent to close at N18.43 kobo, Okomu Oil Plc with 8.89 per cent to close at N26.33 kobo per share Neimeth International Plc with 8.16 per cent to close at N0.90 kobo.

Others on the chart are, Guaranty Trust Bank with 8.04 per cent to close at N21.50 kobo, May and Bakers Plc with 7.89 per cent to close at N1.05 kobo, FCMB Plc with 6.50 per cent to close at N1.87 kobo, Ikeja Hotel Plc with 6.05 per cent to close at N3.26 kobo per share and Nigerian Breweries Plc with 6.03 per cent loss to end the week with N120.00 kobo per share

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